The other day I questioned the March 9th Bottom as the orthodox bottom of this bear market. Within that post I cited numerous reasons why March 9th did not fit the typical profile of a bear market bottom. I promised an alternative Elliott Wave count.
If this alternative count, which is slowly gaining my confidence, is true, then the market is most likely in for a month or two of correction, possibly of the triangle variety. Here is a breakdown of the counts for those less familiar from largest to smallest:
Also of note, is that if this count is accurate (again, it makes the most sense to me and does not violate Elliott Wave rules), then this primary wave 4 rally can be expected to reach as high a level as the previous intermediate wave 4 that was made in the beginning of February.
Primary wave 2 was a sharp zig-zag, expect a more drawn out triangle shape or flat for primary 4. After that point, expect primary wave 5 to move below the March 9th low.
If this alternative count, which is slowly gaining my confidence, is true, then the market is most likely in for a month or two of correction, possibly of the triangle variety. Here is a breakdown of the counts for those less familiar from largest to smallest:
- The circled red numbers represent waves of "primary degree"
- The blue numbers in parenthesis are of intermediate degree, one degree smaller than primary
- The black numbers are of minor degree, of course a degree smaller than intermediate
Also of note, is that if this count is accurate (again, it makes the most sense to me and does not violate Elliott Wave rules), then this primary wave 4 rally can be expected to reach as high a level as the previous intermediate wave 4 that was made in the beginning of February.
Primary wave 2 was a sharp zig-zag, expect a more drawn out triangle shape or flat for primary 4. After that point, expect primary wave 5 to move below the March 9th low.
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